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High inflation remains major concern, to moderate by next fiscal: RBI

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has said that “high inflation continues to be a major concern”, the time is appropriate to go for a further increase in the policy rate to effectively deal with inflation and inflation expectations.

The MPC in its meeting raised the policy repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to contain inflation, has committed to bring inflation down to the RBI’s tolerance level.

“As our policy in recent months has been clearly focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, both in terms of liquidity and rates, the change in the wording of the stance should be seen as a continuation and fine-tuning of our recent approach,” Shaktikanta Das said. The withdrawal of accommodation will be non-disruptive to the recovery process and will strengthen RBI’s ongoing efforts to tackle inflation and anchor inflation expectations, he added.

Shaktikanta Das said the Russia-Ukraine crisis has globalised inflationary pressures across geographies, and there are increasing risks of long-term inflation expectations getting unanchored.

Higher frequency indicators for May point to an expansion in demand. This warrants some monetary policy frontload to modulate it so that even if it is not at full strength, it does not exceed the available supply. “In the process, spending will slow down, so will demand and so will the economy. The objective should be to take the repo rate to a height that is at least above the four quarters ahead forecast of inflation, knowing that monetary policy works with a lag,” MPC members said.

As monetary policy works through its lags, demand will inevitably get restrained and contracted to the level of supply. Inflation will fall below 6 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2022-23. In 2023-24, it should moderate to 4 per cent. This is the most practical outcome that can be expected in the current extraordinary circumstances, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra said.

He added that headline inflation levels around the world will remain high for some time. Hence, the thing to watch is the direction of inflation, not its level, which will remain elevated for some time in view of the overwhelming shocks. If headline inflation starts to ease in the second half of the year, the objective of taking the policy rate above future inflation levels will soon be achieved, providing space to pause and reconfigure, Michael Patra said.

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